Scenario thinking & planning:
Improving the way you manage uncertainty
and anticipate the future
“The test of a first rate intelligence
is the ability to hold two opposing ideas
in the mind at the same time and still have the ability
to function”
F Scott Fitzgerald
The issue...
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Sometimes, we construct our strategies and plans on the basis
of what we want to happen, rather than what might happen. Sometimes,
we plan on what we believe and know rather than what we are
uncertain about.
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So, how can we ensure our strategy is robust enough, given
the uncertainties that are out there?
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How can we ensure we, collectively, understand these uncertainties
and are looking for the signals and triggers that things are
changing and the strategy might have to be reviewed or even
revised?
Our service means that...
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You understand what uncertainties you face and you collectively
know what they mean to the organisation
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You can test the robustness of your strategy against the potential
future scenarios that could feasibly pan out
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You are better prepared to recognise the warning signs, know
where the crunch points are and what to do about them
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You all leave the boardroom with the same pattern of thinking
and action, so you behave consistently with the rest of the
organisation
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You are more likely to implement your strategy successfully
What we do...
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We conduct scenario thinking sessions where you explore the
uncertainties about the future and how they might cause the
future to unfold differently. More importantly how to
identify when they are starting to happen.
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We help you explore why you have these uncertainties and the
underlying knowledge and beliefs that drive them
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We help you as a team understand each others concerns and assumptions
so there is a deeper communication amongst you
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We help you test your strategy against these scenarios, like
a prototype aircraft being tested in a wind tunnel.
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Help you explore how your strategy can be made more robust,
including the timing, sequencing and dependency between aspects
of the strategy
More on Future thinking
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